statistical significance

The check on whether your winning variant really won or just got lucky. A low p-value means the data fit badly with 'no difference'.

is this result real or luckenough data yetp valuestat sigis my a/b test donestatisticaly significant95% confidencecan I call the testhow do I know the winner is a real winner

See it

Live demo coming soon

What it is

Variant B converted at 4.2 percent, A at 3.8 percent. Significance is the check on whether that gap is a real difference or the same coin landing heads a few extra times. The p-value answers one narrow, conditional question: assuming the two variants are truly identical and the rest of the test's assumptions hold, how often would I see a gap this big or bigger? Below your chosen threshold (alpha, conventionally 0.05) most teams are willing to call it. A small p-value says the data sit badly with the no-difference assumption; it does not hand you the probability that chance was at work, and it cannot tell you which assumption broke.

Keep two numbers apart that everyone mashes together. Alpha is the false-positive rate you agreed to tolerate on this one test. The 95 percent on a confidence interval is coverage: over many repeats of the same procedure, that many intervals would contain the true effect. They line up numerically for a standard two-sided test, which is why people conflate them, but they answer different questions, and neither one is 'a 95 percent chance B is better'. Significance also says nothing about size: with enough traffic a 0.05 percent lift goes green and is still worth nothing. Read the confidence interval on the lift, not the yes/no badge, because 'somewhere between minus 2 and plus 14 percent' is not a decision.

The gotcha that ruins most tests is peeking: checking every morning and stopping the moment it turns green. That turns a 5 percent false positive rate into something closer to 30 percent, because you gave noise twenty chances to cross the line. Fix it by computing the sample size up front from your baseline rate and minimum detectable effect, running to it, and covering whole weeks so Tuesday traffic does not outvote Sunday. If you must watch it daily, use a sequential or Bayesian method built for exactly that.

Ask AI for it

Analyze this A/B test for significance: variant A had [visitors] visitors and [conversions] conversions, variant B had [visitors] and [conversions], run over [dates]. Compute the two-proportion z-test, report the p-value against an alpha of 0.05, and state the p-value in words as 'assuming no true difference, a gap this large or larger would turn up this often'. Give the 95 percent confidence interval on both the absolute and the relative lift, and label it as coverage of the true effect rather than a probability that B wins. Then tell me the sample size per variant I should have committed to up front for 80 percent power to detect a 10 percent relative lift at this baseline rate, whether the test reached it, and whether the run covered whole weeks. End with a plain-language call: ship, kill, or keep running, and for how much longer. Do not report a winner on an interval that crosses zero.

You might have meant

a b testpeeking problemexperiment sample size calculationcontrol groupnovelty effect